Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 50.0% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 90.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 75.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Lafferty
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Lafferty
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lafferty
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
0
Lafferty
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (46)
58.7% (858)
-8.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lafferty is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (37).
Lafferty shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Hertl
Home
47.8% (23)
60.1% (599)
Away
52.2% (23)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Lafferty
Hertl
P1
53.3%
52.4%
P2
55.6%
63.9%
P3
42.9%
58.5%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
33.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
50.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:14 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |