Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lafferty wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 47.5% vs Zegras 39.5% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 72.6%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 90.8%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 66.8%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Lafferty
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lafferty
Zegras
Last 7: Lafferty 4-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Lafferty
Zegras
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
0
Lafferty
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
3
1
Lafferty
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (1,417)
39.0% (1,703)
+8.9%
Power Play
45.7% (46)
38.5% (148)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (184)
25.0% (8)
+18.5%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Lafferty is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Lafferty shoots right. Zegras is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (605).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Zegras
Home
47.3% (833)
40.5% (908)
Away
47.4% (814)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Lafferty
Zegras
P1
49.4%
40.0%
P2
43.1%
38.6%
P3
49.6%
38.2%
OT
60.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
45.5%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.4%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:06 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |