Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Reinhart wins 35.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reinhart 42.9% vs Zegras 37.0% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 79.5%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 57.4%
Neutral zone
Zegras 54.7%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
Reinhart
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Reinhart
Zegras
Last 5: Reinhart 2-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Reinhart
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
2
0
Reinhart
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reinhart
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (77)
33.0% (264)
+6.0%
Power Play
35.4% (48)
32.1% (56)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (22)
50.0% (2)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Reinhart is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Reinhart shoots right. Zegras is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Reinhart
Zegras
Home
35.7% (84)
35.3% (173)
Away
41.3% (63)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Reinhart
Zegras
P1
42.6%
33.0%
P2
34.7%
35.7%
P3
37.3%
29.7%
Final 5 min
28.6%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
38.1%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |