Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Reinhart wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reinhart 43.3% vs Zegras 39.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 55.2%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 76.6%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 58.3%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Reinhart
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Reinhart
Zegras
Last 7: Reinhart 4-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Reinhart
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
4
0
Reinhart
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reinhart
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (2,173)
39.0% (1,703)
+3.5%
Power Play
46.5% (525)
38.5% (148)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (339)
25.0% (8)
+16.3%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Reinhart shoots right. Zegras is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (605).
Home / Away
Reinhart
Zegras
Home
44.9% (1,528)
40.5% (908)
Away
41.2% (1,509)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Reinhart
Zegras
P1
44.5%
40.0%
P2
40.5%
38.6%
P3
44.5%
38.2%
OT
43.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
42.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Feb 20, 2023 | 1 | 17:23 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |