Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuraly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 51.0% vs Thompson 45.2% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 82.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 70.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 56.1%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Kuraly
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Kuraly
Thompson
Last 7: Kuraly 3-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Kuraly
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Kuraly
Thompson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
1
Kuraly
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (464)
44.6% (661)
+8.0%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
48.4% (95)
+51.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (155)
33.3% (33)
+13.2%
On power play, Kuraly has a +51.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Kuraly shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Thompson
Home
55.9% (322)
45.7% (411)
Away
46.0% (298)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Kuraly
Thompson
P1
55.9%
47.7%
P2
46.7%
45.7%
P3
50.7%
40.5%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |