Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Kuraly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.4% vs Thompson 42.8% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 77.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 82.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 55.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Kuraly
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
14
(26 meetings)
12
14
Kuraly
Thompson
Last 10: Kuraly 5-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
6
Kuraly
Thompson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
5
4
Kuraly
Thompson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
6
4
Kuraly
Thompson
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (5,161)
42.9% (3,540)
+8.7%
Power Play
56.4% (101)
46.9% (373)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,091)
33.6% (265)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,235).
Kuraly shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Thompson
Home
52.1% (3,205)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
48.8% (3,149)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Kuraly
Thompson
P1
51.2%
44.4%
P2
50.0%
43.7%
P3
50.2%
40.0%
OT
52.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
49.1%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 18:02 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 05:50 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 01:15 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:40 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |