Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kuraly wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 51.0% vs Hertl 57.5% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 91.2%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 68.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Kuraly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kuraly
Hertl
Last 5: Kuraly 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Kuraly
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kuraly
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (464)
58.7% (858)
-6.1%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
55.8% (285)
+44.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (155)
62.9% (35)
-16.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +44.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Kuraly shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Hertl
Home
55.9% (322)
60.1% (599)
Away
46.0% (298)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Kuraly
Hertl
P1
55.9%
52.4%
P2
46.7%
63.9%
P3
50.7%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |