Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.4% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 16-13 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Kuraly
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
13
(29 meetings)
16
13
Kuraly
Hertl
Last 10: Kuraly 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
5
Kuraly
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
9
3
Kuraly
Hertl
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
5
Kuraly
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (5,161)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.3%
Power Play
56.4% (101)
59.2% (1,995)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,091)
46.3% (806)
-1.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Kuraly shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Hertl
Home
52.1% (3,205)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.8% (3,149)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Kuraly
Hertl
P1
51.2%
53.6%
P2
50.0%
54.2%
P3
50.2%
55.3%
OT
52.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 03:04 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 05:41 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 09:15 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |