Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 51.0% vs Novak 42.5% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 87.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 75.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 56.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Kuraly
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kuraly
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Kuraly
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (464)
40.4% (408)
+12.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
45.5% (33)
+54.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +54.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Kuraly shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Novak
Home
55.9% (322)
42.0% (212)
Away
46.0% (298)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Kuraly
Novak
P1
55.9%
41.9%
P2
46.7%
39.3%
P3
50.7%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:47 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |