Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.4% vs Novak 43.0% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 88.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 58.9%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Kuraly
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Kuraly
Novak
Last 10: Kuraly 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Kuraly
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
1
Kuraly
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Kuraly
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (5,161)
41.8% (1,568)
+9.8%
Power Play
56.4% (101)
51.5% (134)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,091)
50.0% (2)
-5.6%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Kuraly shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Novak
Home
52.1% (3,205)
45.1% (831)
Away
48.8% (3,149)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Kuraly
Novak
P1
51.2%
43.7%
P2
50.0%
42.8%
P3
50.2%
41.1%
OT
52.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:47 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 02:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |