Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Kuraly wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 51.0% vs Zegras 37.0% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 68.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 98.4%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 95.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 95.7%
95.7%
4.3%
Kuraly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Kuraly
Zegras
Last 5: Kuraly 5-0 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
5
0
Kuraly
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (464)
33.0% (264)
+19.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
32.1% (56)
+67.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (155)
50.0% (2)
-3.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +67.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Kuraly shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Zegras
Home
55.9% (322)
35.3% (173)
Away
46.0% (298)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Kuraly
Zegras
P1
55.9%
33.0%
P2
46.7%
35.7%
P3
50.7%
29.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 17:47 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |