Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.4% vs Zegras 39.5% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 50.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 98.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 93.0%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Kuraly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kuraly
Zegras
Last 8: Kuraly 6-2 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Kuraly
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Kuraly
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
6
0
Kuraly
Zegras
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (5,161)
39.0% (1,703)
+12.6%
Power Play
56.4% (101)
38.5% (148)
+17.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,091)
25.0% (8)
+19.4%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Kuraly shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Zegras
Home
52.1% (3,205)
40.5% (908)
Away
48.8% (3,149)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Kuraly
Zegras
P1
51.2%
40.0%
P2
50.0%
38.6%
P3
50.2%
38.2%
OT
52.3%
31.6%
Final 5 min
49.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 17:47 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:28 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |