Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Kuraly wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.4% vs Johnston 49.0% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 15-4 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Kuraly 63.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 92.8%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 71.0%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Kuraly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
4
(19 meetings)
15
4
Kuraly
Johnston
Last 10: Kuraly 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Kuraly
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
6
0
Kuraly
Johnston
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
8
2
Kuraly
Johnston
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (5,161)
49.1% (2,232)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.4% (101)
52.5% (179)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,091)
44.7% (237)
-0.3%
On power play, Kuraly has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,235).
Kuraly shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Johnston
Home
52.1% (3,205)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
48.8% (3,149)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Kuraly
Johnston
P1
51.2%
50.0%
P2
50.0%
48.1%
P3
50.2%
48.6%
OT
52.3%
51.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:32 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 01:08 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 05:41 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 03:06 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 07:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |