Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 50.8%). Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuraly wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 51.0% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 56.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 65.3%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Last 6: Kuraly 5-1 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
0
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (464)
52.5% (320)
+0.1%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
33.3% (3)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (155)
42.4% (59)
+4.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Kuraly shoots left. Ostapchuk is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Home
55.9% (322)
49.1% (171)
Away
46.0% (298)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
P1
55.9%
50.4%
P2
46.7%
46.8%
P3
50.7%
55.1%
Final 5 min
50.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |