Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.4% vs Ostapchuk 48.7% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 61.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 89.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 77.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Last 6: Kuraly 5-1 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
0
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (5,161)
49.1% (632)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.4% (101)
28.6% (7)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (1,091)
45.5% (66)
-1.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Kuraly shoots left. Ostapchuk is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Home
52.1% (3,205)
48.6% (329)
Away
48.8% (3,149)
48.4% (376)
By Period
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
P1
51.2%
48.5%
P2
50.0%
46.4%
P3
50.2%
50.7%
Final 5 min
49.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |