Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.2% vs Jarvis 42.5% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 90.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 76.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 88.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Monahan
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Monahan
Jarvis
Last 10: Monahan 8-2 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
1
Monahan
Jarvis
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
2
Monahan
Jarvis
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,407)
41.8% (354)
+9.3%
Power Play
53.6% (2,582)
43.7% (119)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (772)
38.2% (157)
+7.7%
On power play, Monahan has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Monahan shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Monahan
Jarvis
Home
52.3% (7,387)
43.8% (336)
Away
50.2% (7,374)
38.4% (294)
By Period
Monahan
Jarvis
P1
51.0%
39.5%
P2
51.7%
39.5%
P3
51.0%
45.8%
OT
53.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.2%
38.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |