Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.5% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 56.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 57.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Monahan
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Monahan
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Monahan
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (874)
57.1% (368)
-4.1%
Power Play
54.7% (161)
55.2% (96)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
50.0% (10)
-2.5%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Monahan shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Monahan
Stamkos
Home
53.8% (558)
53.9% (230)
Away
51.7% (578)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Monahan
Stamkos
P1
49.5%
56.7%
P2
54.8%
54.1%
P3
52.8%
59.2%
OT
61.9%
62.5%
Final 5 min
53.5%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |