Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.4%
Defensive zone
Monahan 53.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Monahan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Monahan
Hertl
Last 5: Monahan 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
1
Monahan
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (874)
58.7% (858)
-5.7%
Power Play
54.7% (161)
55.8% (285)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
62.9% (35)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Monahan shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Monahan
Hertl
Home
53.8% (558)
60.1% (599)
Away
51.7% (578)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Monahan
Hertl
P1
49.5%
52.4%
P2
54.8%
63.9%
P3
52.8%
58.5%
OT
61.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 15:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |