Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 38-34 in 72 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Monahan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
34
(72 meetings)
38
34
Monahan
Hertl
Last 10: Monahan 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
17
13
Monahan
Hertl
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
10
Monahan
Hertl
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
12
11
Monahan
Hertl
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,407)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.8%
Power Play
53.6% (2,582)
59.2% (1,995)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (772)
46.3% (806)
-0.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Monahan shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Monahan
Hertl
Home
52.3% (7,387)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
50.2% (7,374)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Monahan
Hertl
P1
51.0%
53.6%
P2
51.7%
54.2%
P3
51.0%
55.3%
OT
53.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
50.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 15:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 06:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 14:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |