Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cirelli wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 46.9% vs Aho 52.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 86.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 57.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 73.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 77.1%
22.9%
77.1%
Cirelli
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Cirelli
Aho
Last 10: Cirelli 8-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Cirelli
Aho
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
0
Cirelli
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (737)
51.6% (819)
-5.2%
Power Play
57.6% (99)
58.4% (173)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (112)
46.3% (67)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Cirelli is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Cirelli shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Aho
Home
46.7% (478)
53.9% (568)
Away
46.4% (470)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Cirelli
Aho
P1
46.6%
55.4%
P2
48.6%
51.2%
P3
44.3%
50.9%
OT
44.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.6%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
46.5%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:56 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 08:38 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 15:45 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 13:51 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |