Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 48.3% vs Aho 50.5% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 78.1%
Defensive zone
Dewar 78.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.8%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Dewar
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dewar
Aho
Last 6: Dewar 3-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Dewar
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
0
Dewar
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Dewar
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (47)
50.5% (878)
+2.7%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
53.5% (144)
+46.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (30)
44.3% (61)
-11.0%
On power play, Dewar has a +46.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dewar is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (44).
Dewar shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Dewar
Aho
Home
50.0% (34)
53.8% (571)
Away
43.2% (44)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Dewar
Aho
P1
50.0%
49.0%
P2
32.0%
51.7%
P3
60.9%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
44.5%
46.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |