Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Aho 54.9% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 70.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 71.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McDavid
Aho
Last 7: McDavid 2-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
McDavid
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
54.5% (870)
-6.8%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
62.4% (266)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
37.1% (62)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
47.3% (387)
53.9% (603)
Away
48.1% (389)
56.8% (595)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
47.6%
54.1%
P2
50.0%
55.0%
P3
45.0%
57.4%
Final 5 min
46.8%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.7%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |