Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Aho 51.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 16-9 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 66.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 78.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Paul
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
9
(25 meetings)
16
9
Paul
Aho
Last 10: Paul 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
5
3
Paul
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
8
2
Paul
Aho
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Paul
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
50.2% (6,646)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
58.9% (1,310)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
46.5% (465)
+0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Paul
Aho
Home
52.8% (2,445)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Paul
Aho
P1
53.8%
51.1%
P2
51.0%
52.1%
P3
52.2%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 01:48 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |