Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 60.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 67.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 64.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Aho
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Aho
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
57.1% (368)
-6.6%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
55.2% (96)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
50.0% (10)
-5.7%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Aho shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Aho
Stamkos
Home
53.8% (571)
53.9% (230)
Away
46.9% (512)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Aho
Stamkos
P1
49.0%
56.7%
P2
51.7%
54.1%
P3
50.3%
59.2%
OT
58.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:56 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |