Sebastian Aho vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 51.1%). Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 31 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.3% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 36-30 in 66 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 60.0%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 57.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Aho
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
36
(66 meetings)
30
36
Aho
Stamkos
Last 10: Aho 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
12
11
Aho
Stamkos
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
11
20
Aho
Stamkos
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
7
5
Aho
Stamkos
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (6,646)
50.5% (9,825)
-0.3%
Power Play
58.9% (1,310)
55.2% (1,729)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (465)
49.6% (827)
-3.1%
On power play, Aho has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Aho shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Aho
Stamkos
Home
52.4% (4,325)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
50.1% (4,096)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Aho
Stamkos
P1
51.1%
49.2%
P2
52.1%
52.7%
P3
50.8%
50.9%
OT
48.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:56 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:29 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:26 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 11:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 08:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 17:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |