Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Thompson 45.2% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 52.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 68.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 55.1%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Aho
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Aho
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Aho
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Aho
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
44.6% (661)
+5.9%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
48.4% (95)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
33.3% (33)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Aho shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Aho
Thompson
Home
53.8% (571)
45.7% (411)
Away
46.9% (512)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Aho
Thompson
P1
49.0%
47.7%
P2
51.7%
45.7%
P3
50.3%
40.5%
OT
58.8%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.4%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |