Sebastian Aho vs William Karlsson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 70.7%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 72.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 57.4%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Aho
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Aho
Karlsson
Last 6: Aho 3-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Aho
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Aho
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
58.5% (135)
-8.0%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
80.0% (5)
-26.5%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
44.4% (18)
-0.1%
On power play, Karlsson has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Aho shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Aho
Karlsson
Home
53.8% (571)
63.7% (91)
Away
46.9% (512)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Aho
Karlsson
P1
49.0%
54.4%
P2
51.7%
66.7%
P3
50.3%
51.9%
OT
58.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:47 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:56 | Defensive | William Karlsson |