Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Aho wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 61.7%
Defensive zone
Johnston 60.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Aho
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Aho
Johnston
Last 10: Aho 5-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Aho
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
1
Aho
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
2
Aho
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
47.3% (666)
+3.2%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
50.7% (69)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
51.4% (35)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Aho shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Aho
Johnston
Home
53.8% (571)
47.5% (364)
Away
46.9% (512)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Aho
Johnston
P1
49.0%
49.4%
P2
51.7%
46.9%
P3
50.3%
47.1%
OT
58.8%
47.1%
Final 5 min
49.4%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:25 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:11 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 09:26 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 06:51 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |