Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.5% vs Gourde 46.0% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 58.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 85.2%
Neutral zone
Gourde 65.1%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Aho
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Aho
Gourde
Last 10: Aho 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Aho
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Aho
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
4
Aho
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (878)
47.2% (687)
+3.3%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
45.0% (20)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
33.0% (88)
+11.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Aho shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Aho
Gourde
Home
53.8% (571)
44.4% (356)
Away
46.9% (512)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Aho
Gourde
P1
49.0%
42.2%
P2
51.7%
50.0%
P3
50.3%
44.5%
OT
58.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:18 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |