Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.3% vs Gourde 48.2% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 19-16 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 64.3%
Defensive zone
Gourde 76.8%
Neutral zone
Gourde 59.7%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Aho
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
19
(35 meetings)
16
19
Aho
Gourde
Last 10: Aho 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
8
6
Aho
Gourde
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
7
6
Aho
Gourde
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
7
Aho
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (6,646)
48.4% (4,987)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.9% (1,310)
57.4% (376)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (465)
40.0% (555)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Aho shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
Aho
Gourde
Home
52.4% (4,325)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
50.1% (4,096)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Aho
Gourde
P1
51.1%
49.8%
P2
52.1%
47.5%
P3
50.8%
47.5%
OT
48.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:18 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:20 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |