Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Norris wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 57.6%
Defensive zone
Norris 69.3%
Neutral zone
Norris 58.6%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Norris
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Norris
Stamkos
Last 7: Norris 3-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Norris
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Norris
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
57.1% (368)
-6.6%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
55.2% (96)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
50.0% (10)
-7.1%
On power play, Stamkos has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Norris is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Norris shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Norris
Stamkos
Home
48.1% (233)
53.9% (230)
Away
51.6% (246)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Norris
Stamkos
P1
53.1%
56.7%
P2
49.2%
54.1%
P3
48.4%
59.2%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
46.5%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:08 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 02:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |