Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.0% vs 56.5%). Frost wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.3% vs Stamkos 55.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 63.4%
Defensive zone
Frost 52.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (745)
57.1% (368)
-1.3%
Power Play
60.5% (172)
55.2% (96)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
50.0% (10)
+38.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +38.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
57.3% (497)
53.9% (230)
Away
56.6% (429)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
60.1%
56.7%
P2
56.0%
54.1%
P3
54.7%
59.2%
OT
63.6%
62.5%
Final 5 min
52.0%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |