Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Stamkos wins 58.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 55.4% vs Hertl 57.5% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.1%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 50.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Stamkos
Hertl
Last 9: Stamkos 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stamkos
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
2
Stamkos
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stamkos
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (368)
58.7% (858)
-1.6%
Power Play
55.2% (96)
55.8% (285)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
53.9% (230)
60.1% (599)
Away
59.0% (244)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
56.7%
52.4%
P2
54.1%
63.9%
P3
59.2%
58.5%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:39 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:05 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |