Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 26 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 51.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 42-38 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 64.1%
35.9%
64.1%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
38
(80 meetings)
42
38
Stamkos
Hertl
Last 10: Stamkos 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
16
Stamkos
Hertl
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
16
11
Stamkos
Hertl
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
16
11
Stamkos
Hertl
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (9,825)
53.9% (8,303)
-3.4%
Power Play
55.2% (1,729)
59.2% (1,995)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (827)
46.3% (806)
+3.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
52.8% (6,270)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
49.3% (6,137)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
49.2%
53.6%
P2
52.7%
54.2%
P3
50.9%
55.3%
OT
54.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:39 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:05 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:20 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 15:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |