Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +16.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Hertl 57.4% (-16.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Laferriere 67.5%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 84.9%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 81.9%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Laferriere
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Laferriere
Hertl
Last 7: Laferriere 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Laferriere
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Laferriere
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (325)
58.5% (845)
-16.7%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
56.2% (281)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (72)
62.9% (35)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Laferriere is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Laferriere shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Hertl
Home
40.2% (204)
60.0% (582)
Away
42.9% (210)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Laferriere
Hertl
P1
32.5%
52.1%
P2
39.7%
63.6%
P3
48.9%
58.8%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.4%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
38.0%▼
40.0%
41.5%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |