Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 53.2% vs Hertl 57.5% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 66.7%
Defensive zone
Cozens 69.7%
Neutral zone
Cozens 66.9%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Cozens
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Cozens
Hertl
Last 9: Cozens 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Cozens
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Cozens
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (634)
58.7% (858)
-5.5%
Power Play
57.7% (97)
55.8% (285)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
62.9% (35)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cozens is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Cozens shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Cozens
Hertl
Home
54.8% (383)
60.1% (599)
Away
52.3% (354)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Cozens
Hertl
P1
56.0%
52.4%
P2
51.2%
63.9%
P3
53.9%
58.5%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |