Scouting Report
Jack Drury holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Drury wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drury 58.1% vs Hertl 57.4% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.7%
Defensive zone
Drury 72.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Drury
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Drury
Hertl
Last 9: Drury 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Drury
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drury
1
0
Drury
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Drury
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drury
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.3% (690)
58.5% (845)
+2.8%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
56.2% (281)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (165)
62.9% (35)
-12.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drury is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (530).
Drury shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Drury
Hertl
Home
59.0% (417)
60.0% (582)
Away
59.2% (448)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Drury
Hertl
P1
58.9%
52.1%
P2
58.3%
63.6%
P3
59.9%
58.8%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.6%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drury
72.0%▲
59.0%
59.1%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |