Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% vs Hertl 57.4% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.7%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Last 6: Nugent-Hopkins 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (250)
58.5% (845)
-12.5%
Power Play
70.6% (17)
56.2% (281)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (22)
62.9% (35)
-31.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +31.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
50.3% (175)
60.0% (582)
Away
40.4% (114)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
48.5%
52.1%
P2
45.9%
63.6%
P3
46.5%
58.8%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.7%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | OT | 01:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |