Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 56.8% vs Zegras 43.3% (+19.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 96.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 91.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 93.1%
93.1%
6.9%
Hertl
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Hertl
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
0
Hertl
Zegras
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (718)
39.8% (128)
+17.2%
Power Play
64.9% (188)
22.2% (9)
+42.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (77)
0.0% (1)
+44.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Hertl shoots left. Zegras is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
Hertl
Zegras
Home
59.2% (463)
29.7% (74)
Away
56.0% (520)
48.4% (64)
By Period
Hertl
Zegras
P1
56.3%
40.7%
P2
55.4%
35.1%
P3
60.5%
41.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.5%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
38.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |