Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +18.7% FO% edge overall. Hertl wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.5% vs Jost 44.8% (+18.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.0%
Defensive zone
Jost 61.2%
Neutral zone
Jost 52.1%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Hertl
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hertl
Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Hertl
Jost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (858)
39.5% (86)
+19.2%
Power Play
55.8% (285)
0.0% (1)
+55.8%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
42.9% (7)
+20.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +55.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Hertl shoots left. Jost is 34.4% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Hertl
Jost
Home
60.1% (599)
38.9% (54)
Away
56.1% (579)
40.0% (40)
By Period
Hertl
Jost
P1
52.4%
42.4%
P2
63.9%
37.8%
P3
58.5%
37.5%
Final 5 min
59.5%
36.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
39.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 14:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |