Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Jost 40.5% (+14.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 73.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Hertl
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
10
(22 meetings)
12
10
Hertl
Jost
Last 10: Hertl 4-6 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
1
Hertl
Jost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
2
4
Hertl
Jost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
5
Hertl
Jost
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (8,303)
41.0% (2,016)
+12.9%
Power Play
59.2% (1,995)
34.2% (73)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
35.2% (256)
+11.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Hertl shoots left. Jost is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,469).
Home / Away
Hertl
Jost
Home
55.8% (5,382)
41.9% (1,240)
Away
52.9% (5,722)
38.1% (1,105)
By Period
Hertl
Jost
P1
53.6%
38.5%
P2
54.2%
41.1%
P3
55.3%
40.9%
OT
46.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 14:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 08:59 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 03:32 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 00:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 3 | 09:38 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 30, 2021 | 1 | 18:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 06:29 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |