Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.1% vs 57.6%). Hertl wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.5% vs Karlsson 54.7% (+0.5%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.5%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 75.5%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 51.6%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Hertl
Karlsson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (858)
58.5% (135)
+0.2%
Power Play
55.8% (285)
80.0% (5)
-24.2%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
44.4% (18)
+18.5%
On power play, Karlsson has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Hertl shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Hertl
Karlsson
Home
60.1% (599)
63.7% (91)
Away
56.1% (579)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Hertl
Karlsson
P1
52.4%
54.4%
P2
63.9%
66.7%
P3
58.5%
51.9%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%