Tomas Hertl vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 41 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Karlsson 51.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 60-60 in 120 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.6%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 62.4%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 56.8%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Hertl
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
60
(120 meetings)
60
60
Hertl
Karlsson
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
22
16
Hertl
Karlsson
38 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
17
24
Hertl
Karlsson
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
21
20
Hertl
Karlsson
41 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (8,303)
51.8% (7,849)
+2.1%
Power Play
59.2% (1,995)
54.8% (1,048)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
44.2% (1,109)
+2.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Hertl shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Hertl
Karlsson
Home
55.8% (5,382)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
52.9% (5,722)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Hertl
Karlsson
P1
53.6%
50.3%
P2
54.2%
51.3%
P3
55.3%
52.4%
OT
46.9%
44.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 11:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:21 | Defensive | William Karlsson |