Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hertl wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.9%
Defensive zone
Johnston 77.7%
Neutral zone
Johnston 66.2%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 75.4%
24.6%
75.4%
Hertl
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hertl
Johnston
Last 5: Hertl 2-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
3
Hertl
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
0
Hertl
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (858)
47.3% (666)
+11.4%
Power Play
55.8% (285)
50.7% (69)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
51.4% (35)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Hertl shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnston
Home
60.1% (599)
47.5% (364)
Away
56.1% (579)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Hertl
Johnston
P1
52.4%
49.4%
P2
63.9%
46.9%
P3
58.5%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |