Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Hertl wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Johnston 49.0% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 18-7 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 97.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 85.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 91.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 92.2%
92.2%
7.8%
Hertl
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
7
(25 meetings)
18
7
Hertl
Johnston
Last 10: Hertl 6-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
1
Hertl
Johnston
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
5
Hertl
Johnston
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
1
Hertl
Johnston
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (8,303)
49.1% (2,232)
+4.8%
Power Play
59.2% (1,995)
52.5% (179)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
44.7% (237)
+1.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Hertl shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Hertl
Johnston
Home
55.8% (5,382)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
52.9% (5,722)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Hertl
Johnston
P1
53.6%
50.0%
P2
54.2%
48.1%
P3
55.3%
48.6%
OT
46.9%
51.5%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:37 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 08:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |