Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Hertl wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.5% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.9%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 66.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
0
Hertl
Ostapchuk
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
3
8
Hertl
Ostapchuk
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (858)
52.5% (320)
+6.2%
Power Play
55.8% (285)
33.3% (3)
+22.5%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
42.4% (59)
+20.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Hertl shoots left. Ostapchuk is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Home
60.1% (599)
49.1% (171)
Away
56.1% (579)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Hertl
Ostapchuk
P1
52.4%
50.4%
P2
63.9%
46.8%
P3
58.5%
55.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |