Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Ostapchuk 48.7% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
0
Hertl
Ostapchuk
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
3
8
Hertl
Ostapchuk
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (8,303)
49.1% (632)
+4.8%
Power Play
59.2% (1,995)
28.6% (7)
+30.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (806)
45.5% (66)
+0.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Hertl shoots left. Ostapchuk is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Hertl
Ostapchuk
Home
55.8% (5,382)
48.6% (329)
Away
52.9% (5,722)
48.4% (376)
By Period
Hertl
Ostapchuk
P1
53.6%
48.5%
P2
54.2%
46.4%
P3
55.3%
50.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 17:03 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:03 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 16:56 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |