Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hertl wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 57.5% vs Girgensons 46.8% (+12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.6%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 61.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Hertl
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hertl
Girgensons
Last 7: Hertl 4-3 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
1
Hertl
Girgensons
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hertl
Girgensons
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Hertl
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (858)
45.1% (164)
+13.6%
Power Play
55.8% (285)
50.0% (2)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
62.9% (35)
45.2% (31)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Hertl shoots left. Girgensons is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Hertl
Girgensons
Home
60.1% (599)
44.6% (92)
Away
56.1% (579)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Hertl
Girgensons
P1
52.4%
44.2%
P2
63.9%
46.0%
P3
58.5%
45.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |