Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.3% vs 44.5%). Poehling wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 46.2% vs Novak 45.6% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 85.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 70.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Poehling
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Poehling
Novak
Last 6: Poehling 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Poehling
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Poehling
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Poehling
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (269)
43.8% (384)
+2.7%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
58.8% (17)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (139)
100.0% (1)
-57.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +57.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Poehling is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Poehling shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Poehling
Novak
Home
45.2% (177)
46.5% (202)
Away
45.3% (234)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Poehling
Novak
P1
47.7%
49.2%
P2
44.4%
44.2%
P3
44.6%
40.0%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
42.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
46.5%
45.3%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 01:52 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |