Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Novak wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Smith shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.0% vs Smith 39.9% (+7.2%)
Offensive zone
Smith 53.3%
Defensive zone
Novak 60.4%
Neutral zone
Smith 55.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Novak
Smith
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (1,568)
33.5% (194)
+8.3%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
48.1% (27)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (2)
+0.0%
On even strength, Novak has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Novak shoots left. Smith is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Novak
Smith
Home
45.1% (831)
33.6% (128)
Away
40.2% (873)
37.9% (95)
By Period
Novak
Smith
P1
43.7%
37.1%
P2
42.8%
33.8%
P3
41.1%
33.9%
OT
57.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
40.1%
34.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Smith
36.0%▬
37.0%
35.4%